Proflex Market Update - Wk 18

Welcome to another edition of the Proflex Weekly Update! Let’s dive into what’s happening across the markets and how we are navigating it for long-term success.

Markets Bouncing — But the Trade War Isn’t Over

Markets staged a robust recovery last week, with major indices bouncing from their lows. Tech stocks led the charge, boosted by better-than-feared earnings results. Bitcoin broke out strongly as well, seeing record inflows last week — a move we highlighted over the past two weeks as a high-probability setup based on chart patterns.

However, let’s not lose perspective:

🔹 The Trade War is Far From Over:

• While countries like Japan, India, and Italy are working towards negotiation frameworks, China remains absent from the table.
• Trump’s strategy is pushing for a full reset of global trade, which simply cannot happen overnight.
• Market optimism today is fueled more by “hope” that Trump will eventually pivot to a softer stance, rather than any tangible resolution.

Thus, the market today is split:

At Proflex, we remain optimistic but cautious:

• We continue to stay long quality positions with strategic hedges.
• We are actively trading volatility to build cash and book profits when appropriate.

Earnings Season: Bright Spots in Tech

The corporate earnings season has been a crucial positive catalyst:

• Google and Netflix earnings injected momentum into tech.
• AWS leadership reaffirmed their commitment to continued AI investment even before Amazon’s earnings call — a big signal that AI spending remains resilient.
• This week brings even more heavyweight earnings reports — critical for gauging sentiment into May.

What we’re watching:

✅ Companies benefiting from AI spend and Cloud growth.

✅ Strong free cash flow businesses that can weather trade turbulence.

🏦 Macro Focus: Fed Meeting, Rates, and Liquidity

The next FOMC meeting in early May will be another pivotal moment:

• Futures markets are pricing no cut for May, but high probabilities of a cut by June.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent and Congressional Republicans are shifting focus to tax cuts — a potential powerful catalyst if formally proposed.

Behind the scenes:

• Quiet QE (buybacks of off-the-run Treasuries) is growing liquidity.
• Fed’s QT taper is accelerating liquidity support even further.

This “silent liquidity flood” is supporting both equities and hard assets like gold and Bitcoin — as we discussed extensively in recent weekly macro calls.

₿ Bitcoin: Leading the Recovery Again

Bitcoin has quietly and confidently decoupled from equity weakness:

• While S&P 500 and Nasdaq struggled, Bitcoin broke out of its 2025 downtrend.
• Record ETF inflows last week show how strong the institutional appetite is.

• 21 will mimic MicroStrategy’s playbook: raise capital, accumulate Bitcoin, create “Bitcoin yield” for shareholders.
• This will accelerate corporate Bitcoin adoption.

Our Subscribers: Those following our Bitcoin allocation advice in recent weeks have seen excellent returns, with Crypto assets sharply outperforming equities during April’s volatility.

📌 Final Thoughts

• Trade war uncertainty will keep volatility elevated, but opportunity is building underneath the chaos.
• Earnings and tax cut negotiations will define the next market moves.
• Gold, Bitcoin, AI-driven tech remain the strongest asset classes for 2025 so far — and we believe they will lead the recovery when market stabilization happens.

📢 Join the Discussion in Our Macro WhatsApp Group!​
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Proflex Subscribers – Staying Ahead of the Curve 📈

Separating Noise from Signal: In volatile markets, we help subscribers stay disciplined and focus on strategic long-term opportunities.

Best regards,

Raman Bindlish

Editor-in-Chief,

Blockstart Research

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