Proflex Market Update - Wk 20

Markets ended last week searching for direction, with major indices down marginally after a strong multi-week rebound. But the weekend brought a major sentiment shift with fresh optimism from the U.S.-China trade talks.

Here’s the breakdown:

Trade War Eases – Sentiment Turns

As we’ve discussed in our weekly macro calls over multiple weeks since April 9, the worst of the trade war scenario was priced in and markets were ripe for investing. That thesis played out this weekend:

• The U.S. and China have agreed to baseline 10% reciprocal tariffs while talks continue.
• Tariffs on fentanyl-related items (20%) will remain for now and be part of deeper negotiations.
• China is not retaliating further and appears eager to settle under U.S.-favorable terms of imbalanced 10% / 30% tariff structure.
• The previous 145% effective blockade-like structure has de-escalated to a negotiable framework.

Market Reaction today:

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell below 20 – its lowest level since March-end, confirming a surge in bullish sentiment.

👉 Our All-Access Subscribers and Managed Portfolios booked significant profits during these trade war escalations.

⚠️ New Risk on the Horizon – Inflation & Yield Spike​
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With the trade war easing, we may see initial euphoria but the market narrative will shift back to old concerns:

• Inflation fears returning as tariffs imply cost-push inflation.
• Yields are rising again, reigniting concerns about borrowing costs and asset valuations.

We discussed various factors to watch in our weekly community call.

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₿ Bitcoin Hits $100K Again

– Institutional Game Theory in Motion

We continue to stay overweight on Bitcoin – and it’s paying off.

• Bitcoin has outperformed all asset classes in recent weeks.
• We’ve shared repeated alerts on our Discord and Crypto Pulse notes since late March.
• The $100K breakout came with ETF inflows spiking again and rising corporate treasury adoption:
  • 21 and ASST are following MicroStrategy’s model with billions earmarked for BTC.
  • Bitcoin stocks (MSTR, COIN) and ETFs (IBIT, FBTC) gaining momentum.

Meanwhile, global M2 money supply is rising again – and Bitcoin is one of the first assets to react positively.

📈 Proflex Positioning – Our Game Plan Is Working​
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Over the past 6 weeks, our macro outlook has guided our community through this mayhem.

If you’ve missed our Friday calls, now’s the time to join! These calls have offered actionable insights through uncertainty and helped investors when fear was high.

📢 Join the Discussion in Our Macro WhatsApp Group!​
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Proflex Subscribers – Staying Ahead of the Curve 📈

Over the past 6 weeks, All-Access and Managed Portfolio subscribers to build positions carefully while others panicked.

✅ YTD Trade Success Rate: Now at ~90%

📊 Recent profits booked on: NVDA, AMD, META, TSLA, GDX, QQQ, COIN

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Team Proflex

Trusted Macro Insights. Calm Investing. Tactical Trades.

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