Proflex Market Update - Wk 06

Market Shakeout | AI CapEx Sustained | Bitcoin Rebound

The S&P, after a strong start to 2026 gaining ~1.4% in January and briefly crossing 7,000 intraday, has settled into a pattern of extreme weekly volatility.
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Despite robust earnings growth "way higher than estimates," the index shows "wild swings" of 250 to 300 points within the week, only to settle in a tight 3 to 30 point range on Fridays.
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​Bitcoin, after a brutal correction, found a critical bounce, signaling smart money re-entry amidst record ETF volumes.
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Meanwhile, the AI CapEx boom signals a deeper, long-term structural sustainance, positioning it as the defining investment theme of the decade.

Insights from the Proflex Macro Call
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The S&P 500's seemingly 'flat' performance masks violent intraday swings designed to flush out retail leverage.

Our latest Proflex Macro Call revealed a forgotten truth: the S&P 500 (SPX) has traded "almost sideways" weekly, yet endured "wild swings of almost 250 to 300 points" during the week.
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Despite SPX reporting double-digit year-over-year earnings growth till half of Q4 earnings, market reactions have been turbulent. This apparent paradox is a structural "clean-out," not a fundamental failure.
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​High leverage, especially from retail investors treating earnings like "gambling," creates fertile ground for institutional "readjustments" to liquidate weak hands.

The market is manufacturing volatility to create opportunities for patient capital.

"This isn't about bad news; it's about burning bad positions. The Street is clearing the deck."

This systemic flush, enabled by the proliferation of 0DTE and weekly options, has amplified speculative pressure. The Magnificent 7 and tech sectors have actually been struggling since their October tops, even as the broader SPX made new highs.
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You can watch the complete recording here:

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Key Drivers This Week
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AI: The Undeniable "AI Decade" and Exploding CapEx

Concerns over market volatility and sector struggles obscure the most significant structural shift of our time: the AI Decade.
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Proflex believes that this is not a bubble; it's the defining economic driver. Capex on AI is "exploding," reaching "north of $600 billion," with estimates continually being upgraded.

This immense investment from industry titans like Google (Capex projected to double next year) is a direct vote of confidence.

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Software companies are looking sharp, increasing revenue and profits per employee, demonstrating AI's efficiency gains. Earnings Per Share (EPS) remain "fairly healthy" and are growing.
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Breakthroughs from Anthropic’s "great models" to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD), alongside massive AI infrastructure costs shaking the market, underscore its transformative power.

Proflex believes that this fundamental transformation will continue to be the primary economic driver, rewarding long-term conviction despite short-term market noise.

Bitcoin: A Violent Correction, Followed by Resurgence
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Bitcoin experienced a brutal collapse, shedding "nearly 50% of its value in four months" and falling 10%+ intraday, dropping "below $70,000 last week.
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This "deep correction" saw "record level of volumes" for IBIT (Blackrock ETF) on Thursday, reflecting "heavy amount of liquidations" that mirrored the severe sentiment of the 2022 FTX/Luna crash.
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This was not a fundamental breakdown but a massive "liquidation event" that "killed hedge funds."

Crucially, after making a new low for the correction, Bitcoin found strong support at a long-term trend line and bounced back.
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This rapid recovery suggests "smart money was waiting for these liquidations" & Bitcoin is showing eary signs of reversal of sentiment from all-time lows.

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🧭 Proflex Playbook – Navigating the Leverage-Driven Liquidation Cycle
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​The market is actively purging excess leverage, making tactical positioning paramount. This is not a time for panic, but for disciplined positioning.
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Our conviction stays anchored in the data:

• Focus on Structural Growth: Continue to overweight the secular AI theme, recognizing its multi-year runway.
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• Anticipate Shallow Corrections: Use dips as accumulation opportunities, not reasons for fear, understanding that "none of the corrections stick."
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• Diversify Thoughtfully: Recognize the "decorrelation" across asset classes; consider gold, silver and Bitcoin for portfolio resilience.
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• Develop Mental Models: Prioritize long-term planning (6-12 months out) over short-term news, aiming for consistent, incremental gains.

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If you're an All-Access or Managed Portfolio subscriber, our positioning has already shifted ahead of this moment—scaling up asymmetric hard asset plays while hedging for earnings volatility and geopolitical tail risks.

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Until next week,
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— The Proflex Team
​ Trusted Macro Insights. Calm Investing. Tactical Trades.