Proflex Market Update - Wk 07

S&P Stalls | Tech Re-rate & Volatility Surge | Warsh's Fed Play

February 2026 saw the S&P 500 hitting a perplexing wall, defying broader market strength as tech giants struggled.
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​Software & tech sectors sank sharply (S&P 500 software index down ~13% in early Feb), erasing gains due to Anthropic Cowork launch and uncertainty around valuations.
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Amidst this consolidation, the nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair sparked initial jitters, though Proflex views it as largely overblown short-term noise.
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Meanwhile, a surge in speculative options trading continues to fuel unprecedented volatility, creating a “whiplash” effect for traders.
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Despite market's current struggles, the underlying Proflex message for serious investors remains clear: zoom out, ignore the noise, and focus on long-term value.

Insights from the Proflex Macro Call
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S&P 500's Headline Illusion: Rotation Not Retreat

One of the insights from this week's Proflex call is the disconnect between the headline S&P 500 performance and the underlying market health.
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While the index appears to have “hit a wall” and is in a “sideways move” , the rest of the market is undeniably in an uptrend.

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Money is aggressively rotating out of mega-cap tech — the primary drag on the SPX — and into smaller caps and rate-sensitive sectors.

This is a market performing a crucial internal rebalancing, reversing to its mean above the 200-day moving average.
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​The question isn't if the market goes higher, but which sectors will lead the next leg, post-reset.​
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You can watch the complete recording here:

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Key Drivers This Week
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Warsh & Fed: A Lower-Rates Future, Despite the Noise

The market's knee-jerk reaction to Kevin Warsh's nomination for Fed Chair—triggering sharp drops in gold and silver—is an "overanalyzed panic." ​
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While Warsh has historically advocated for a "regime change" at the Fed, criticizing its data reliance and "bloated" balance sheet, these views must be put in context.

President Trump's vocal desire for "lower rates" suggests Warsh's policy direction will align with easing, not tightening.
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Warsh's nomination "suggests the Fed may lean into rate-cut flexibility," especially as AI accelerates productivity & probabilities confirm the view.

What this means next:
Expect two to three rate cuts this year (Proved by Fed CMEwatch probabilities), providing a significant stimulus, particularly for debt-heavy small-cap sectors.
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The "macro stability" narrative holds, irrespective of who leads the Fed. The market will soon realize the underlying policy direction is dovish, not hawkish.

Tech's AI Dilemma: Leverage Flush, Value Returns
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​The tech sector is embroiled in a "panic cycle" where compelling fundamentals are being overshadowed by shifting narratives and excessive leverage.
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Despite stellar earnings from giants like Microsoft and Meta, and massive capex expansion ($200–$300 billion) by companies like Nvidia, stocks have seen "cyclical selling."
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Last year's "AI is promising" rally has morphed into fears that AI is probably going to disrupt a lot of existing companies—a convenient narrative to "flush out excess leverage."

Proflex believes that this "panic selling" presents a prime accumulation opportunity for long-term investors.

Whiplash Warning: Options-Driven Volatility Now the Norm

The market's “speculative layer” has intensified dramatically, leading to violent, often news-agnostic, price swings.
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The volume of retail trading in the options market has “increased very heavily” and is becoming exponential.
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The introduction of multiple weekly expiries (Monday, Wednesday, Friday) for “Mag 7” stocks has supercharged this effect, increasing the “speculative layer” and volumes throughout the week, not just on Fridays.

This creates fertile ground for market makers to “manipulate the market,” strategically taking short-term positions to liquidate retail sentiment.
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Traders are experiencing 10–20% moves after earnings that seem utterly irrational. Market makers can intentionally force a stock down after good earnings to kill leverage before accumulating shares.

Bitcoin's Bottom Hunt: Long-Term Conviction Amidst Bearish Flows
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​Bitcoin has unfortunately failed to hold key support, confirming its entry into a “typical bear market” and establishing itself as an “underperforming asset in last few months."
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While recent liquidations suggest a chance of support, the critical warning stands: “first resistance is always the previous breakdown.”

For a true reversal, Bitcoin needs to “go above $80,000” – a distant target given current price action.

Timing the bottom remains elusive (“only can see those things in hindsight”).

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🧭 Proflex Playbook – Navigating the Leverage-Driven Liquidation Cycle
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​The market is actively purging excess leverage, making tactical positioning paramount. This is not a time for panic, but for disciplined positioning.
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Our conviction stays anchored in the data:

• Focus on Structural Growth: Continue to overweight the secular AI theme, recognizing its multi-year runway.
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• Anticipate Shallow Corrections: Use dips as accumulation opportunities, not reasons for fear, understanding that "none of the corrections stick."
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• Diversify Thoughtfully: Recognize the "decorrelation" across asset classes; consider gold, silver and Bitcoin for portfolio resilience.
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• Develop Mental Models: Prioritize long-term planning (6-12 months out) over short-term news, aiming for consistent, incremental gains.

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If you're an All-Access or Managed Portfolio subscriber, our positioning has already shifted ahead of this moment—scaling up asymmetric hard asset plays while hedging for earnings volatility and geopolitical tail risks.

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Until next week,
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— The Proflex Team
​ Trusted Macro Insights. Calm Investing. Tactical Trades.