Proflex Market Update - Wk 08

Tariff Chaos | Macro Stability | Tech's Critical Bottom

Last week, the return of tariff uncertainty has reopened a major macro risk as the Supreme Court invalidated key tariffs, only for the administration to respond with an immediate, escalated 15% global tariff hike.
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This has put global trade deals back in doubt, forced companies to reassess supply chains, and injected fresh uncertainty into markets already sensitive to policy shocks.

At the same time, Tech is at a critical inflection point. After a sharp selloff in the first six weeks of the year, leadership stocks are attempting to form a bottom, and their recovery is essential for broader market stability.
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​NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings stand out as a defining catalyst, a strong print could restore confidence in the AI trade and confirm that the worst of the tech reset is behind us, while the macro pulse remains stable but fragile under rising geopolitical and trade risks.

Key Drivers This Week
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Trump's Tariff Tantrum 2.0: Global Trade in Chaos

The Supreme Court delivered a seismic blow to presidential power last week, striking down President Trump’s sweeping tariffs by a decisive 6-3 vote.
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The global trade landscape was thrown into immediate disarray last week when President Trump announced plans to increase global tariffs to 15%, a mere day after the Supreme Court deemed a significant portion of import taxes unlawful.

The Court's ruling in *Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump* clarified that the IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs, striking down what Governor Newsom called "illegal tariffs."
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Newsom has since called for immediate tariff refund checks for Americans, with interest. This rapid escalation, detailed by Axios, signals a profound shift, with the administration reacting quickly to substitute invalidated tariffs and actively escalating trade tensions.
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This move puts existing trade deals back in jeopardy and injects significant uncertainty into Wall Street, forcing companies to quickly reassess their supply chains and pricing strategies.

Tech's Redemption Arc: NVDA Earnings as a Catalyst
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​The tech sector, after a turbulent first six weeks of the year, appears to be forming a critical bottom.

Many high-growth names experienced a significant meltdown, but recent price action suggests a potential reversal. ​
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The recovery of these foundational tech stocks is paramount for broader market sentiment.
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​All eyes are now on NVIDIA's (NVDA) upcoming earnings report, anticipated as a monumental catalyst. ​
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A strong beat from NVDA could provide the much-needed validation for the AI narrative and inject fresh capital back into the tech complex, solidifying the nascent recovery and potentially kickstarting the next leg higher. This is a belief test for tech leadership.

Macro Stability: A Calm Before the Storm?

In stark contrast to the trade turmoil, domestic macro indicators present a picture of surprising stability. ​
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GDP growth is coming in lower, which paradoxically helps keep the broader macro environment balanced.

Crucially, jobless claims are not rising, signaling a resilient labor market.

The market is broadly pricing in a flat policy stance from the Fed until mid-year.

This balanced macro backdrop, however, could be a calm before the storm.
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While a potential tailwind might emerge in the second half of the year, this hinges entirely on how effectively global trade uncertainty is managed and mitigated. ​
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Any escalation could quickly unravel domestic stability.

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🧭 Proflex Playbook – Trade Redrawn, Tech Resets
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​The market is actively looking for a new narrative strong enough to carry it higher amidst unprecedented trade policy shifts. This is not a time for panic amidst noise, but for disciplined positioning.
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Our conviction stays anchored in the data:

• Focus on Structural Growth: Continue to overweight the secular AI theme, recognizing its multi-year runway.
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• Anticipate Shallow Corrections: Use dips as accumulation opportunities, not reasons for fear, understanding that "none of the corrections stick."
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• Diversify Thoughtfully: Recognize the "decorrelation" across asset classes; consider gold, silver and Bitcoin for portfolio resilience.
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• Develop Mental Models: Prioritize long-term planning (6-12 months out) over short-term news, aiming for consistent, incremental gains.

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If you're an All-Access or Managed Portfolio subscriber, our positioning has already shifted ahead of this moment—scaling up asymmetric hard asset plays while hedging for earnings volatility and geopolitical tail risks.

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Until next week,
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— The Proflex Team
​ Trusted Macro Insights. Calm Investing. Tactical Trades.