Proflex Market Update - Wk 36​
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Fed Cuts Imminent? | Big Tech & Apple Play | Hard Assets Break Strong

US markets closed August on a strong note, with the S&P 500 up 1.91% Month to Date despite pressure from weak jobs data and new tariffs.

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Resilient Tech earnings, month-end flows, and Fed rate cut hopes helped equities finish near record highs after a volatile month.
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Despite hotter PCE data last week, markets remain convinced of a September Fed rate cut, signaling a significant macroeconomic tailwind.
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This anticipated economic upheaval is fueling risk assets, while the AI boom continues to propel the tech sector, notably Nvidia and a re-awakening Apple.
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Meanwhile, Bitcoin and precious metals are showing robust signs of structural appreciation, challenging the prevailing "bubble" narrative.

Insights for Proflex Weekly Macro Call
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The "Bubble" Narrative Misses the Mark: What Others Overlook​
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The current market conditions, with capital costs aggressively dropping and economic health improving from impending rate cuts, fundamentally challenge the notion of a market "bubble."
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​Consensus is fixated on valuations, yet they fail to grasp that decreasing the cost of capital fundamentally justifies asset prices.

We are seeing sustained double-digit percentage growth in global money supplies, a powerful undercurrent driving this rally. This is called as re-anchoring of value & changes everything for how investors should view current equity levels.

You can watch recording of the full weekly discussion here:

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Want to learn how to invest in macro themes with hedged upside exposure and controlled risk?

Key Drivers This Week

Macro Tailwinds & The Rate Cut Dilemma​
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Despite recent hotter-than-expected PCE numbers, market probabilities for a September 17 rate cut remain high at 87%, with an additional 47% chance for another cut in October.

The yields on bonds, like the 2-Year, 10-year yield, are aggressively dropping, signaling a decreasing cost of capital.

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This makes investment opportunities far more attractive, providing a powerful tailwind for economic activity and risk assets. Coupled with sustained double-digit percentage growth in money supplies globally, the environment is ripe for asset price appreciation.
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Existing policies, including relaxed SLR rules from the Trump administration, also encourage banks to expand credit, further fueling the economy.

Tech Sector: AI's Second Wind & Apple's Moment

The market’s growth story is broadening out. Big tech companies are still spending heavily on new infrastructure, showing confidence in long-term demand.

Nvidia continues to post outstanding results—up 56% last quarter and guiding for another 54% this quarter—even without counting possible China sales. Its ability to grow despite restrictions shows strong underlying demand.
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We’re also seeing a rotation within tech. While leaders like Nvidia have run far, companies such as Apple and Google are starting to close the gap. Apple’s new iPhone launch in about 10 days could be a major spark, especially if it highlights new features that excite consumers and investors alike.

Unlike its peers, Apple hasn’t yet reached record highs, leaving more room for upside. Its brand and reach give it unique advantages as it explores new opportunities and partnerships.

Finally, the expected rate cut cycle will add more support for company growth and stock prices across the board, extending gains beyond just a few mega-caps.
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Crypto & Precious Metals: Breakouts Beyond Belief

Bitcoin remains closely tied to global money supply trends, making the upcoming rate cut cycle a major potential catalyst.

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While the recent drop below its $112K peak was a technical setback, the bigger picture stays constructive as long as it trades above its 200-day moving average.
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Importantly, the market is comfortably absorbing new supply from older wallets (Satoshi Era), and ETF giants like BlackRock and Fidelity continue to attract strong inflows.

Gold has broken out after a four-month consolidation, a strong technical signal that reflects growing demand amid money supply expansion and macro tailwinds. It is now on the verge of new all-time highs.
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​Silver is also showing momentum, historically amplifying gold’s moves later in the cycle. Some silver miners have already returned 70–80% YTD gains promising sector strength.
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Key Watchpoints: The Next Few Weeks Decide Everything

The market is now entering a high-stakes period packed with catalysts that will define the second half of the year. From macroeconomic signals to corporate events, each data point will feed into investor psychology and asset repricing.

Key Catalysts Ahead:

• Unemployment Data: A supportive jobs print could cement expectations for a 25 bps rate cut, adding fuel to the risk-asset rally.
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• FOMC Meeting (Sep 16–17): Perhaps the most pivotal event—forward guidance here will shape not just September’s reaction but the broader trajectory of policy into year-end.
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• Apple iPhone Launch (~10 days): The spotlight is on Apple’s AI ambitions. A strong unveiling could reinvigorate mega-cap tech momentum.
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• Nvidia’s China Approvals: Potential clearance to ship H20 chips to China would add a new tailwind for Nvidia and ripple through broader tech indices.
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🧭 Proflex Playbook – Rate Cuts Are Here, Capital Rotation Next

We're seeing a re-pricing for a new regime of cheaper capital and robust liquidity. Consensus is still underestimating the breadth of this move.

Our stance stays anchored in the data:

✅ Stay Long Hard Assets — Bitcoin, gold, and silver have front-run policy
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✅ Lean into AI's Second Wave — Beyond core leaders, look for rotation into "laggard" tech names like Apple that have significant upside.
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✅ Position for Deeper Rate Cuts — Despite contrarian voices, the market is pricing in cuts, and this liquidity injection will fuel risk assets.
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✅ Actively Manage Risk Around Key Events — The FOMC meet and Apple launch present immediate volatility and opportunity.

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If you're an All-Access or Managed Portfolio subscriber, our positioning has already shifted ahead of this moment—scaling up asymmetric hard asset plays while hedging for earnings volatility and geopolitical tail risks.
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Until next week,

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— The Proflex Team
​ Trusted Macro Insights. Calm Investing. Tactical Trades.

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