Proflex Market Update - Wk 38​
​
Fed's Rate Cut Riddle | iPhone 17's China Surge | Hard Assets' Unrelenting Rally

US markets finished last week at record highs, with the S&P 500 gaining approximately 1.6% and the Nasdaq climbing about 2% for the week.

These advances came as investors grew increasingly confident rate cut in September, driven by softening labor market data and dovish commentary from central bank officials.
​
This week, all eyes turn to the FOMC meeting (September 16-17), where the Fed's stance on rate cuts will either cement market expectations or unleash fresh volatility.

Meanwhile, Apple's iPhone 17 is defying initial skepticism with blockbuster pre-orders in China, potentially reigniting tech enthusiasm.
​
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin and precious metals continue their ascent, signaling deep-seated global liquidity flows.
​

Key Drivers This Week

FOMC's September Dilemma: Will the Fed Deliver the Cuts?

Bond Markets have already priced in three rate cuts for the remainder of 2025, sending the S&P 500 to new records and the S&P breaking out to fresh highs.
​

​
A cut is widely expected to boost asset prices further, but a miss from expectations could trigger a sharp "sell the news" correction, making it a credibility test for the market's forward pricing mechanism.​
​

Apple's iPhone Launch : China Pre-Orders Signal Strong Demand

Initial market reaction to the iPhone 17 launch was muted, but over the weekend, pre-order data painted a dramatically different picture, especially from China.
​
​Demand has been so high in China that orders were delayed and postponed, with shipments for the iPhone Air and Pro models pushed into October.​
​

​
The iPhone Air's launch in China was specifically blocked due to eSIM regulation issues, which is generally termed as a "near-term hiccup."
​

Bitcoin & Precious Metals: The Unrelenting Bull Run Continues

After a period of consolidation and underperformance, Bitcoin has seen a significant turnaround last week, aligning with the sustained rally in gold and silver.

Bitcoin's reversal follows a period of consolidation, indicating renewed institutional and retail interest.
​
​Gold and silver continue their bull run, signaling persistent inflationary concerns and a hedging strategy against currency debasement.
​

Missed Bitcoin's reversal last week? ​
​
Our Proflex All-Access members received early indications of this tradeable opportunity through our new All-Access Discussions WhatsApp channel. Get ahead of the curve.
​

​
🧭 Proflex Playbook – Positioned for the Rate Cycle's Start

The market is poised, waiting for the Fed to either confirm or deny the aggressive pricing of future rate cuts. Our stance remains clear: leverage validated trends and prepare for tactical shifts.

Our stance stays anchored in the data:

✅ Stay Long Hard Assets — Bitcoin, gold, and silver have front-run policy
​
✅ Lean into AI's Second Wave — Beyond core leaders, look for rotation into "laggard" tech names like Apple that have significant upside.
​
✅ Position for Deeper Rate Cuts — Despite contrarian voices, the market is pricing in cuts, and this liquidity injection will fuel risk assets.
​
✅ Actively Manage Risk Around Key Events — The FOMC meet and Apple launch present immediate volatility and opportunity.

​
If you're an All-Access or Managed Portfolio subscriber, our positioning has already shifted ahead of this moment—scaling up asymmetric hard asset plays while hedging for earnings volatility and geopolitical tail risks.

​

Until next week,

​
— The Proflex Team
​ Trusted Macro Insights. Calm Investing. Tactical Trades.

​
​

​